Florida republicans fear Raul Martinez

Will he decide to run against Lincoln Diaz-Balart in 2008?

By Alvaro F. Fernandez

Raul L. Martinez, former mayor of the city of Hialeah, has never lost an election. Last year Martinez retired from public life. He opted to not seek reelection in the second largest municipality in Miami-Dade County. But the former mayor still seems to garner more publicity than most elected politicians and shows up regularly in The Miami Herald and other media.

There is speculation, and hope in certain circles, that Martinez will challenge U.S. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart in the 2008 November elections. If so, it would become a heavyweight battle. More than one year out, many odds-makers and pundits I’ve spoken to have the former mayor defeating Diaz-Balart, who has held the West Miami Dade (and a small piece of Broward County) congressional seat -- which includes a large part of Hialeah -- since 1992. Although I too believe Martinez would beat Diaz-Balart, I would warn that it will not be as easy as some people tend to want to believe.

Rep. Diaz-Balart is a seasoned politician. He will have more than a million dollars going into the race and his district was drawn during the 2001 redistricting process by his brother, Mario Diaz-Balart. Along the way, Mario also drew himself the adjoining district when he oversaw the process as a state legislator in Florida. He later won the District 25 congressional seat.

With more than 304,000 voters registered in District 21 as of November 2006, the breakdown may surprise some: 129,302 are republicans, 101,156 are democrats, but most interesting is the fact that there are 70,927 voters in this district registered under No Party Affiliation (NPA). Anyone who has spent time registering voters -- something I do on a regular basis and as part of my work -- knows that the largest number of new voters is registering under the no party designation. I believe most people are fed up with few or no solutions from either major Party.

District 21 numbers have changed dramatically since 2000 when Mario helped assure the brothers’ congressional legacy. If the trend should continue the NPAs will soon outnumber both republicans and democrats. The south Florida political landscape is not the same one we knew in 2000. And when you add the Cuba issue to the formula, things start to change even more -- changes one may not have imagined even two or three years ago.

I told a friend recently that if there is a silver lining to the cruelty of the Bush measures imposed on the Cuban family in June 2004 limiting visits to once every three years (and defining who a family member could be), it is that it opened people’s eyes to the insanity that is U.S.-Cuba policy. Add family into the mix and even most republicans start to admit that we’ve stepped over the line.

Yes, as sad as the situation has become, these barbaric regulations made the Cuba issue in Miami discussable from differing viewpoints. And that represents change.

Fear of Raul

If Raul Martinez decides to challenge Lincoln Diaz-Balart in 2008, the Cuba family issue will be high atop the many subjects to be debated. He has openly and fiercely opposed the 2004 regulations limiting family visits. In the past Martinez has also been critical of U.S.-Cuba policy.

Lincoln will probably tread lightly on those points with an experienced debater like Martinez. For Diaz-Balart it may be a losing battle: How can you stand against family. And that’s the point Raul will drive home.

Also, there are already signs that republicans don’t want Raul stepping into the political fray. Last week we were informed of two.

First, Raul held a political fundraiser for Sen. Hillary Clinton at his Hialeah home. Florida Republican Party Chair Jim Greer issued a statement critical of Mrs. Clinton warning that she should watch the company she keeps and the people she accepts money from. The senator had just finished a week where she had turned back $850,000 in contributions raised by political fundraiser Norman Jsu who was jailed and charged with grand theft. In the same press release, Greer called Martinez an “embattled fundraiser.”

Raul, as he is prone to do, blew his stack and fired off a response laced with juicy language. He made headlines. For once I was glad to see Raul get mad and tell Greer off -- even in off-color language.

If you’ve followed Martinez’ career one would understand he was reacting to a republican attempt to discredit him by reminding voters of his past. At one point a not-yet-40-year-old Raul may have been the most powerful politician in Miami-Dade. In the late 1980s a questionable indictment brought on by U.S. Attorney Dexter Lehtinen, husband of Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, turned the mayor’s life into a yogurt gone sour.

Martinez beat the rap, came back and won reelection as mayor of Hialeah. But he had paid a big price. Many (especially voters outside of Hialeah) still question his integrity. Mrs. Ros-Lehtinen went on to become the first Cuban ever elected to Congress.

Then late last week we found out the former mayor had given up hosting a radio program he had just started with Univision’s WQBA (1140-AM). After less than a week on the job the station was demanding he sign a waiver promising not to seek political office. Martinez said no. 

Demos must want it if Raul is to run

For Raul Martinez to run for the District 21 congressional seat the Party must get behind him. If they don’t, Martinez will not run. And when I mention behind him, I mean raise him at least a million dollars.

Like I said at the beginning, Raul has never lost an election. Now retired, I assure you his plans don’t include running a race he cannot win. And without money, Raul will not beat Lincoln Diaz-Balart.

I have little faith in the Democratic leadership. I would love to be proven wrong with Raul Martinez. But I doubt it. Remember this is the Party that after taking back Congress in 2006 was going to bring our boys home from Iraq, reform the Farm Bill, fix immigration and so many other promises that have all fallen by the wayside. The democratic leadership too often has turned out to be simply Republican-lites and in some cases (Cuba comes to mind) they’ve acted worse than republicans.

But if they want to start turning back this Cuban republican stronghold in Miami, the leadership will have to commit to Raul. It would actually be a pretty safe bet. Or have we forgotten that a ridiculously under-funded and unknown candidate in 2006 managed to scratch, claw and wrest 41% of the vote from Diaz-Balart. And with all due respect to Frank Gonzalez who I take my hat off for having the guts to take on Lincoln with $10,000 (while doing a commendable job), Raul Martinez is a proven winner, a tireless campaigner and although cocky at times, connects easily with people on the street. I think they call it charisma -- and he’s got it. He also continuously won over and over again in Hialeah, a heavy republican city.

Raul versus Lincoln would be a political race for the ages. Lincoln, I assure you, not used to being challenged much less questioned, will lose sleep at the possibility. 

And under the right circumstances, as I’ve mentioned, I’m sure Raul would not shy away from the challenge. I just hope the Democratic Party is up to the task. Or, as in dominos, will they pass one more time?